But the metrics tell us that the outcomes were closer to the average than to the extremes. The results this year were a bit more unpredictable than the typical major since 2000. For both men and women, the 2023 French was no more upset-ridden than the 2021 edition, and it ran considerably closer to script than the zany Covid tournament in autumn 2020. (“Min RG” and “Max RG” show the lowest and highest tournament Brier scores for each gender at the French since 2000.)Īgain, lower = more predictable. Here are the Brier scores for men’s and women’s completed main draw matches, along with several other measures for context: Tourney(s) Men Women Or put another way, for our purposes today: The lower the score, the more predictable the outcomes.Ĭonclusion: This year’s French wasn’t that weird. Brier score tells us the calibration of a group of predictions: Were they correct? Did they have the right level of confidence? The lower the score, the better the forecast. Elo isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty good, and the algorithm allows us to compare seasons and tournaments against each other. We measure predictability by taking the Brier score of my Elo-based pre-match forecasts.

While unusually heavy balls don’t rank up there with my hypotheticals, the idea is the same: The more you deviate from typical conditions, the less predictable the results. Holding a top ranking in “normal” tennis doesn’t mean as much in “dark” tennis or “broken string” tennis. At the very least, there will be more upsets. In those situations, the factors that determine the winner of a match are so different than usual that they will probably seem random. If you don’t get the connection, think about really strange conditions, like playing in mud, or in the dark, or with rackets that have broken strings. The weirder the conditions, the more unpredictable the results should be. Were the conditions weirder? To put it another way, were they outside the normal range of variation on tour? We could be talking about anything that impacts play, including surface, balls, weather, you name it. We could compare ace rate, rally length, or a few other metrics to see whether the French played slower this year. Maybe the courts really did play differently. The balls were heavier than usual, especially when they had been in play for a little while and the clay began to stick to them. The clay, apparently, was slower and heavily watered, at least on some courts. An old injury to the labrum of his left hip was also fixed, which will help the tendon evolve better.Many players didn’t like the conditions at Roland Garros this year. The surgery consisted of cleaning the fibrotic and degenerated areas of the tendon both proximal and distal, as well as stitching it to adequately reinforce it.

The Spaniard, who has not competed since the Australian Open in January, underwent surgery at the Teknon Clinic in Barcelona. Todo ha ido bien y la artroscopia fue en el tendón del psoas izquierdo que me ha tenido apartado de la competición desde enero.- Rafa Nadal June 3, 2023 Como sabéis anoche tuve una intervención quirúrgica. 'I will start progressive functional rehabilitation immediately and the normal recovery process they tell me is 5 months, if all goes well.' I want to thank doctors Marc Philippon, Jaume Vilaro and Angel Ruiz-Cotorro for their work. 'An old injury to the labrum of my left hip was also which will surely help the better evolution of the tendon. Everything went well and the arthroscopy was on the left psoas tendon that has kept me out of competition since January,' wrote Nadal in Spanish on social media on Saturday. Rafael Nadal is expected to recuperate for five months after successfully undergoing arthroscopic surgery to check his left psoas muscle on Friday.

Winston salem open 2018 players